Steam Break-Even Calculator
How many copies does your game have to sell to pay for itself? Enter your budget and price to get the number, with every assumption shown so you can change it.
Your game
In US dollars. Enter a budget and a list price. The other two are optional.
Starts at $30,000, the low end of our working estimate for an indie game with your time counted at living costs. Not a measured median.
Months of unpaid work times what you could earn elsewhere. Leave it empty if your budget already includes it.
Your break-even
3,694
copies sold on Steam at $19.99 to recover $30,000
1.3 to 2.6 times the median game at this price
We estimate the median game priced $15 to $19.99 sells about 1,440 to 2,880 copies, from 72 reviews at 20 to 40 copies per review. So at least half of games at this price don't reach this number.
- Net per copy41% of your list price, after the deductions under Assumptions
- $8.12
- Before VAT$9.56 a copy, 48% of list
- 3,140 copies
- At a 25% average discountan example, not a measured figure
- 4,925 copies
- Reviews this impliesat 20 to 40 copies per review
- 93 to 185
- Launch wishlistsfirst year to week one, as planning figures. Not lifetime. See the table below
- 13,600 to 35,200
| How other games did | Priced $15 to $19.99 | All of Steam |
|---|---|---|
| Median game | 72 reviewsabout 1,440 to 2,880 copies | 11 reviewsabout 200 to 400 copies |
| Reached 100 reviewsabout 2,000 to 4,000 copies | 45.7% | 17.3% |
| Reached 1,000 reviewsabout 20,000 to 40,000 copies | 12.3% | 4.2% |
| Games counted | 1,281 | 24,918 |
Context, not your odds. A price doesn't cause these results. Your number is 9.2 to 18 times the all-Steam median, which is low because 17.7% of those games are free and 42.1% cost under $5. Counts are reviews after at least 14 months on sale, for games released from January 2024 to June 2025, so they aren't lifetime totals. Copies are our estimate, and that estimate gets unreliable below about 50 reviews. Source: Steam Niche Index.
The sum: $30,000 ÷ $8.12 per copy ≈ 3,694.
Check this in the Steam fee calculator, which opens with these copies and deductions.
Assumptions
The first four are the Steam fee calculator's defaults. All five are planning assumptions rather than measurements, so change them if you know better.
How far your worldwide average sale sits below your US price.
Taken out before Steam's split. Set it to 0 for the before-VAT figure.
Copies bought and then refunded. Varies by genre.
Fraud and payment disputes.
At 0% every copy sells at full price, which is the best case. Raise it for launch and seasonal discounts.
Steam's cut is 30% on a game's first $10 million, falling above that. The $100 Steam Direct fee stays out of the total once break-even clears $1,000 of adjusted gross revenue, because Valve says it "will be recoupable in the payment made after" a product reaches that.
From copies to launch wishlists
How many launch wishlists 3,694 copies takes depends on how soon the money has to come back.
| Break even within | Launch wishlists | Opt-in survey |
|---|---|---|
| Week one0.105 copies per wishlist | 35,200 | None |
| First month0.105 x 1.39 = 0.146 | 25,300 | 16,8000.22 |
| First six months0.105 x 1.39 x 1.46 = 0.213 | 17,300 | 8,5900.43 |
| First year0.105 x 2.59 = 0.272 | 13,600 | 5,2800.70 |
These are planning figures, not measurements. The bold column multiplies medians from two GameDiscoverCo samples, and both samples are estimates rather than sales data. The 10.5% compares estimated launch wishlists with estimated day-7 sales for about 420 games launched from August to October 2024, largely with at least 5,000 wishlists. GameDiscoverCo says "Our estimates will also not be perfect" and that it is "not really conversion, since some of the sales are from wishlists, and some are organic". The multipliers come from about 5,000 games launched from July 2023 to July 2025 that sold over 1,000 copies in month one.
How far they move. GameDiscoverCo's own rough figure for month one is 13-14%, a little below the 14.6% here. Half of games do worse than a median. At the 25th percentile (4.8%) week one takes about 77,000 launch wishlists, and at the 10th (1.9%) about 194,000. The first-year multiplier is 2.7x at $10 and up and 2.32x below it, and by week-one sales it runs from 1.96x (1,000 to 10,000 copies) to 3.16x (10,000 to 100,000), which puts the first year at about 0.21 to 0.33 copies per wishlist.
The survey column runs higher. It comes from Chris Zukowski's opt-in reader survey, with medians of 0.22, 0.43 and 0.70 units per launch wishlist for games launched from 2023 to 2025. He says the range is wide, and late-2025 launches can't have a full year yet, so the one-year figure rests on fewer games than the rest. GameDiscoverCo's own warning applies: "If you use an opt-in survey, you'll get nicer answers". We have no sourced lifetime ratio, so this stops at one year.
For scale. Break-even here takes about $73,800 in sales at list price, which falls in Silver, one of Chris Zukowski's four tiers of gross lifetime income ($10,001 to $249K). He estimates 8,000 to 60,000 launch wishlists for Silver placement on Steam's Personal Calendar (default top 100), so the first-year figure of 13,600 is inside that range. His ranges overlap and he calls the calendar very new, so treat this as scale rather than a target. The income tiers are on his benchmarks page.
Those copies and wishlists all run through your store page.
No public page yet? The analyzer only reads live store pages, so start with the store page checklist.
How many copies does a game need to sell to break even?
Divide everything the game cost by what one copy pays you. At $19.99 a copy pays about $8.12 on our default assumptions, so a $30,000 game needs 3,694 copies on Steam, or 3,140 before VAT. That is about 93 to 185 reviews at 20 to 40 copies per review.
For scale, we estimate the median game priced $15 to $19.99 sells about 1,440 to 2,880 copies, from 72 reviews at 20 to 40 copies per review, so this example needs 1.3 to 2.6 times that. Across all of Steam, where free and very cheap games pull the median down to about 200 to 400 copies, it needs 9.2 to 18 times. Using the often-quoted 70% gives about 2,140 copies, which holds only if every buyer pays the US price with no tax and no refunds.
Copies to break even = (budget + marketing + your time) / net per copy
Net per copy = price x (1 - average discount) x (1 - regional discount) x (1 - VAT) x (1 - refunds) x (1 - chargebacks) x 0.70
Frequently Asked Questions
How many copies does a game need to sell to be successful?
Enough to pay back what it cost you, so the answer comes from your own budget and price. On our default assumptions a $5,000 game at $9.99 needs 1,232 copies, a $30,000 game at $19.99 needs 3,694, and a $200,000 game at $24.99 needs 19,695. We found no official bar from Valve. Our post on what counts as a successful Steam launch sets out three thresholds you can hold yourself to.
How many copies of a game sold is good?
A good result is one that beats your own break-even. For comparison, better than most Steam games starts at the median, which we estimate at about 200 to 400 copies, or about 1,440 to 2,880 for a game priced $15 to $19.99. About one game in six reaches 100 reviews, about 2,000 to 4,000 copies at 20 to 40 copies per review, and about one game in 24 reaches 1,000, about 20,000 to 40,000 copies. Those shares come from 24,918 Steam games released from January 2024 to June 2025, free games included, after at least 14 months on sale. The Steam Niche Index has the same count by tag and by price.
Is 2 million copies of a game sold good?
For an indie budget, yes, by a wide margin. For a big-budget game it depends on what the game cost. On our default assumptions, 2 million copies on Steam leaves about $16.9 million at $19.99 and about $62 million at $69.99, with Steam's cut falling to 25% above $10 million and 20% above $50 million of adjusted gross revenue. On those assumptions, with no discount, a game that cost less than that has paid back on Steam, and one that cost more has not. See how many copies the average Steam game sells for the rest of the distribution.
How many wishlists do I need to break even?
About 13,600 launch wishlists for a $30,000 game at $19.99 to break even within a year, or about 35,200 to do it in week one. Those multiply two GameDiscoverCo medians: 10.5% of launch wishlists sold in week one, then 2.59 times those copies by the end of year one, which is about 0.27 copies per wishlist, or about 0.21 to 0.33 by week-one volume. They cross two samples of estimates, so they are planning figures rather than measurements. Chris Zukowski's opt-in developer survey runs higher, a median of 0.70 after a year for games launched from 2023 to 2025, or about 5,280 wishlists, but GameDiscoverCo warns that with an opt-in survey "you'll get nicer answers". We have no sourced lifetime ratio. Our post on how many wishlists to have before launch covers the benchmarks.
How many reviews does break-even look like?
Divide your copies by 20 to 40, our working range for recent games, so 3,694 copies is about 93 to 185 reviews. That range is an estimate rather than a measurement, and it gets unreliable below about 50 reviews, but review counts are public, so it gives you a number to compare with similar games. The review to sales multiplier post has the range by genre and game age.
Why does a copy pay me so much less than 70% of the price?
Because Steam's 30% comes off what is left after regional pricing, VAT, refunds and chargebacks. At the fee calculator's defaults of 22%, 15%, 12% and 0.5%, about 41% of list price reaches you, or about 48% before VAT. Those defaults are planning assumptions, so change them if you know your own mix. The Steam fee calculator shows every deduction at your price.
Should I count my own time in the budget?
Count it if you want to know whether the game paid you, and leave it out if you only want your cash back. Once you enter a value, the calculator shows both numbers. A rough value is months of unpaid work times what you could earn elsewhere. Our $30,000 to $60,000 working estimate for a typical indie game already counts your time at living costs, so if you start from that range, leave the time field empty. The range comes from our guide to what an indie game costs to make.
What does this calculator leave out?
It covers Steam sales and the costs you enter. Sales on other stores, publisher or platform deals, your income tax and any new costs after launch are left out, and every copy sells at list price unless you move the average discount slider. Our post on how much indie game developers make goes from gross revenue to personal take-home.
My number is far too high. What can I change?
Start with what the game costs, because cutting scope lowers the number directly. A higher price also lowers it on paper, but it can cut how many people buy, and our price bands don't show that charging more causes more sales, so test it rather than assume it. Extra marketing spend raises the copies you need unless it brings in more buyers than it costs. If none of that closes the gap, it is better to know before you spend the money. Our Steam pricing strategy guide covers the price side.
Related Tools
Steam Fee Calculator
The deduction waterfall behind net per copy, line by line.
Steam Wishlist Calculator
Starts from a first-year revenue goal with its own conversion assumptions, so expect a different number from the table above.
Steam Revenue Calculator
Estimates units and revenue for a released game, so you can see what games like yours may have sold.
Sources
- Steamworks: Steam Direct fee: $100 per app, recoupable in the payment after $1,000 Adjusted Gross Revenue for Steam Store or in-app purchases.
- GameDiscoverCo: new data on Steam wishlists: estimated launch wishlists against estimated day-7 sales, about 420 games from 2024: 10.5% median, 4.8% at the 25th percentile, 1.9% at the 10th.
- GameDiscoverCo: what long tail should you expect, July 2026: estimated copies, about 5,000 games from 2023 to 2025: 1.39x week one by month one, 2.59x by year one, 1.46x month one by month six, 2.7x at $10 and up, 2.32x under $10.
- Chris Zukowski: wishlist inflation survey, October 2026: opt-in survey of 160 games: median units per launch wishlist for 2023 to 2025 launches of 0.22, 0.43 and 0.70.
- Chris Zukowski: how many wishlists at launch, updated June 2026: estimated ranges for Personal Calendar placement: Bronze 5,000 to 32,000, Silver 8,000 to 60,000, Gold 50,000 to 120,000, Diamond 90,000 to 360,000.
- Chris Zukowski: benchmarks: tiers of gross lifetime income: Bronze to $10,000, Silver to $249K, Gold to $999K, Diamond $1 million and up.
- All-Steam median copies: about 200 to 400, our estimate from about 10 reviews at the median, not a measured study.
- Steam Niche Index: review counts by price band, from Steam's public store search on one fixed cohort. Copies per review is our estimate.
Outside sources checked November 2, 2026.
This is arithmetic on planning assumptions, not a sales forecast or financial advice. Your own mix of regions, refunds and discounts will differ, and it does not account for your income taxes.